Dealing with Reality: Foreign Policy, Climate Chage and My Semi-literate Cherubs

Foreign Policy

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3660

This is an article, I found to be really revealing about the relationship between psychology and international policy. It argues that we prefer to interpret evidense that confirms our assumptions, that we expect our plans to work without problems (inflated expectations) and that we abhor certain loss, even if continuing statistically indicates the likelihood of even greater future loss (ever played blackjack?). The arguments have broad applications to Iraq, North Korea and Iran. I think that particularly in Iran's case a poor understanding of Iranian history hinders our ability to act rationally and instead leads us to over-deamonize the regime (even if Tehran is worthy contempt it may also be worthy of understanding).

Iraq will have to bleed painfully and will likely pull the region into aggression if not oughtright conventional military conflict before an eventual "that will have to do" peace can be reached in the post-Yugoslavian style. US military and economic forces should be commited to salvaging a battle that can be won in Afghanistan. Stability there has much deeper implications on many fronts than casual obeservers grasp. It would offer Central Asia a South Asian alternative to Chinese and Russian economic and political dominance. By offering the region's regimes option aside from being dependent on Moscow and/or Beijing one offers the option to engage the global community on an even footing. This encourages elites to invest in their countries, rather than plunder them. Once that happens the moderation and stabilization of behavior is furtile soil for the democratic reform and accountability that tends to marginalize destabilizing actors like Islamist. If the situation continues to deteriorate however, people may feel they have nothing to lose and much to gain by revolutionary upheavals.

The obsession with trying to salvage the unsalvagable (in that we are unwilling to make the sacrifices necessary to salvage it, like a draft) in Iraq, if allowed to continue, will silently but surely lead to disaster in Afghanistan. Iran looks aggressive today, imagine what it will be like surrounded by civil war in Afghanistan as well as Iraq. It will have every reason to be radical and aggressive in the face of potential destruction.

Contain Iraq (cut our losses as intelligently as possible) and don't lose Afghanistan. And press for resonable and achievable reforms among allies and foes alike. Turkmenistan will not wake up tomorrow with a feverish case of anglophilia and outbreaks of organized political parties, women's rights groups and a parliament. While it is an admirable tendency of US foreign policy to demand a degree of morality, we must base our policy on reality, not how we wish things were. You don't convince people that traditions like wearing a burqa should be stopped by attacking beliefs. Attacking beliefs (even with the best of intentions) only alienates.


Climate Change

I think one can see parallel biases in the discussion on climate change. I believe history will show that once again we should have been proactive rather than reactive on the issue. For my part, I don't think it is possible to be too green when one takes into account not only the damage done to the environment but also the political and economic risks we subject ourselves to by guzzle gas by the SUV-full. I also believe that properly explained in terms of externalities and infrastructure even hard-core individualist libretarians would reconsider their philosophically coherent stance. How many of such type advocate for the elimination of government funded road construction or a national army? Some problems are critical and require collective action.


My Semi-literate Cherubs

Things at the Alpine Fund are well. Lots of English classes.

The kids I teach at CPC (Center for the Protection of Children) near Osh Bazaar span a wider range of literacy than I expected. Some take about a minute to write a word. I always knew that illiteracy existed but it existed in the abstract. I am sure that some of the folks I met in Bolivia or Peru were illiterate. But I assumed that the illiterate people I met were the 60 year olds selling handmade tapestries and fruit outside various tourist destinations. The abstraction came to an abrupt end Tuesday. I was trying to teach the kids the alphabet and even after taking painfully long to copy much of the information, many didn't copy it coherently. It is sad but also funny watching a kid start to write 'A a apple' and so froth on the correct upper left portion of the first page his new notebook but by 'M m moon' be writing about an into the backside of the coverpage.

I just kept going. I dont have the Kyrgyz language skills to teach how to take notes. So, in a personal attempt to rectify ambition in the desire to wrought the world in my own image I have revised my expectations (and my plans accordingly). Rather than covering the simple present, present continuous and simple past, we will just go as far as we go. If some of the brighter students with more home support are able to use their English to keep studying with future volunteers, that is great. If the more average of the group enjoy learning and decide they want to do more of it (or for their kids someday to do more of it) then that is great. If some of the kids with much bigger problems in their lives than learning the latin alphabet feel that the world isn't always a mean place that tries to push you down, that will be great too. By these new standards freshly grounded in a new appreciation for reality and complete with new strategies for success along these lines, I hope to succeed.